Molecular biomarkers and site of first recurrence after radiotherapy for head and neck cancer

The prognostic significance of a panel of molecular biomarkers in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) for first failure site (primary (T), nodal (N) or distant (M)) was analysed in 309 patients randomised to continuous hyperfractionated accelerated radiotherapy (CHART) vs. conventionally fractionated radiotherapy. Multivariate competing risks analysis was performed using an accelerated failure-time model. First-order interactions between each marker and trial arm were also tested. Bcl2-positivity increased the time to T- and N-failures, increasing cyclin D I score decreased the time to N-failures. A random proliferative pattern and low Ki-67 decreased the time to M-failures. A high CD31 score was associated with a significantly longer time to T-failure after CHART, but not after conventional fractionation. Risks of T-, N- and M-failures could be estimated for individual patients. Competing risks analysis of failure sites allows the rational selection of patients for more aggressive loco-regional or systemic therapy. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.