Signals of climatic change in the central-western Mediterranean basin

Climatic scenario models forecast an increase of the air temperature in the next century of 1.5-3.5 degrees C, because of the anthropogenic enhancement of the concentration greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The analysis of the trend of long-lasting data series of climatic parameters seems to support such a prediction: indeed due to the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, a climate modification could be already ongoing. Several papers have been published dealing with the global scale climate, this paper, however, deals with an investigation on the regional scale, referring specifically to the Central-Western Mediterranean basin. We are concerned with the parameters which are more affected by climate changes, such as pressure, temperature and precipitation. The analysis carried out indicates that in the Central-Western Mediterranean basin the climate is evolving in a consistent way; we have found: i) an increase of air pressure at the surface and at the upper levels; ii) a reduction in cloudiness and precipitation amount; iii) an increase by about 1 degrees C in surface air temperature during the period 1860-1995 and in more recent years a rise of the freezing level and of the tropopause; iv) a reduction of strong cyclogenetic events and an increase of heat waves. These results, although compatible with the scenarios predicted, do not allow a final conclusion to be drawn concerning a man-made influence on climate change in the basin.