Weather, seasonal trends and property crimes in Minneapolis, 1987-1988. A moderator-variable time-series analysis of routine activities

This research examines the relevance of routine activity theory to three property offences: burglary, robbery, and larceny-theft. We hypothesized that temperature would combine with time of day to predict these offences. This hypothesis was tested using a moderator-variable time-series analysis of property crime reports to police in Minneapolis over a 2-year period. The analysis indicated that time of day and day of the week were the best predictors of all three property crimes. After controlling for 281 temporal variables (e.g holidays, school closings, and interactions with time of day and day of the week), temperature also emerged as a significant predictor of property offences. Contrary to Queletet's thermic law, more crimes were reported during summer than other months. The results are consistent with predictions derived from routine activity theory. (C) 2000 Academic Press.