Analysis of snow cover variability and change in Quebec, 1948-2005

The spatial and temporal characteristics of annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax) and fall and spring snow cover duration (SCD) were analysed over Quebec and adjacent area for snow seasons 1948/1949-2004/2005 using reconstructed daily snow depth and SWE. Snow cover variability in Quebec was found to be significantly correlated with most of the major atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the climate of eastern North America but the influence was characterized by strong multidecadal-scale variability. The strongest and most consistent relationship was observed between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and fall SCD variability over western Quebec. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to have a limited impact on Quebec snow cover. Evidence was found for a shift in circulation over the study region around 1980 associated with an abrupt increase in sea level pressure (SLP) and decreases in winter precipitation, snow depth and SWE over much of southern Quebec, as well as changes in the atmospheric patterns with significant links to snow cover variability. Trend analysis of the reconstructed snow cover over 1948-2005 provided evidence of a clear north-south gradient in SWEmax and spring SCD with significant local decreases over southern Quebec and significant local increases over north-central Quebec. The increase in SWEmax over northern Quebec is consistent with proxy data (lake levels, tree growth forms, permafrost temperatures), with hemispheric-wide trends of increasing precipitation over higher latitudes, and with projections of global climate models (GCMs). Copyright (C) 2010 Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons. Ltd