Pulmonary embolism exclusion: a practical approach to low probability using the PIOPED data

A recent trend among physicians is the categorisation of lung scans as normal [excludes pulmonary embolism (PE)], high probability (confirms PE) and non-diagnostic (no judgement on PE risk). The low probability scan is therefore being eliminated as a functional category. This occasional survey contends that such an approach is misguided. Correction of the original PIOPED data with certain assumptions provides a more reproducible, albeit restricted, low probability scan category which excludes PE in 97% of cases in the low pre-test clinical category. Patients with a low probability scan with risk factors for PE (i.e. medium clinical risk) will require further investigation. More important, the very low probability scan category excludes PE in 98% of patients with low and more than 92% of patients with medium pre-test clinical likelihood. The demise of "low probability" is premature.