Use of the antral follicle count to predict the outcome of assisted reproductive technologies

Objective: To evaluate the predictive value of the antral follicle count in patients undergoing assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs). Design: Prospective study. Setting: Tertiary care institutional hospital. Patient(s): Consecutively seen patients undergoing ARTs such as IVF-ET, gamete intrafallopian transfer, and tubal embryo transfer (TET). Intervention(s): The ovarian antral follicle number was determined by transvaginal ultrasonography on the first or second menstrual day, before the administration of gonadotropins, in patients undergoing ARTs. Main Outcome Measure(s): Ovulation induction was accomplished with the use of GnRH agonist down-regulation combined with FSH and menotropin stimulation. Gamete intrafallopian transfer or TET was performed in patients with patent fallopian tubes, and IVF-ET was undertaken in the remaining patients. Analysis of variance and Mantel-Haenszel monotonic test for trends were used for data analysis. Result(s): A total of 149 treatment cycles for 130 couples were performed during the study period. The procedures performed included 89 ETs, 26 gamete intrafallopian transfers, 13 TET cycles, and 21 incomplete cycles (9 poor responders, 6 failed retrievals, and 6 nonfertilization cycles). All treatment cycles were divided into three groups according to the number of antral follicles (i.e., less than or equal to 3, 4-10, and greater than or equal to 11) to evaluate the influence of various factors. The antral follicle count correlated significantly with patient age, day 3 serum FSH level, use of gonadotropins, serum estradiol concentration, number of oocytes retrieved, and, later, number of oocytes or embryos transferred. The group of patients who had a lower antral follicle count also had a significantly higher rate of cycle cancellation compared with the other two groups (68.8% vs. 5.3% and 0, respectively). No pregnancies occurred in the low antral follicle count group, whereas there was a trend toward an increasing number of pregnancies per attempt as the number of antral follicles increased (0, 23.7%, and 36.8%, respectively). Conclusion(s): It is easy to determine the number of antral follicles with a diameter of 2-5 mm on the first or second day of menstruation, or just before the administration of exogenous gonadotropins. We were able to predict the ovarian response and pregnancy results of patients undergoing ARTs with the use of this simple procedure. (C) 1998 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.