A model to predict expected mean and stochastic hourly global solar radiation I(h;: nj) values

被引：105

作者：

Kaplanis, S. ^{[1
]}

Kaplani, E. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] TGEI Patra, Renewable Energy Lab, Patras 26334, Greece

来源：

RENEWABLE ENERGY | 2007年 / 32卷 / 08期

关键词：

hourly solar radiation; prediction; on-line management; statistical simulation; dynamic PV-sizing; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT;

D O I：

10.1016/j.renene.2006.06.014

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

This paper describes an improved approach for (a) the estimation of the mean expected hourly global solar radiation I(h;n(j)), for any hour h of a day nj of the year, at any. site, and (b) the estimation of stochastically fluctuating I(h;n(j)) values, based on only one morning measurement of a day. Predicted mean expected values are compared, on one hand with recorded data for the period of 1995-2000 and, on the other, with results obtained by the METEONORM package, for the region of Patra, Greece. The stochastically predicted values for the 17th January and 17th July are compared with the recorded data and the corresponding values predicted by the METEONORM package. The proposed model provides I(h;nj) predictions very close to the measurements and offers itself as a promising tool both for the on-line daily management of solar power sources and loads, and for a cost effective PV sizing approach. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：1414 / 1425

页数：12

共 16 条

[1] TAG - A TIME-DEPENDENT, AUTOREGRESSIVE, GAUSSIAN MODEL FOR GENERATING SYNTHETIC HOURLY RADIATION [J].

AGUIAR, R ;

COLLARESPEREIRA, M .

SOLAR ENERGY, 1992, 49 (03) :167-174

[2] STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF HOURLY GLOBAL RADIATION [J].

AGUIAR, R ;

COLLARESPEREIRA, M .

SOLAR ENERGY, 1992, 48 (03) :157-167

[3]

AGUIAR R, 1992, SOL ENERGY, V40, P269

[4]

BAIG A, 1984, RENEW ENERG, V1, P123

[5]

BOX GEP, 1994, TIME SERIES ANAL

[6] AVERAGE DISTRIBUTION OF SOLAR-RADIATION - CORRELATIONS BETWEEN DIFFUSE AND HEMISPHERICAL AND BETWEEN DAILY AND HOURLY INSOLATION VALUES [J].

COLLARESPEREIRA, M ;

RABL, A .

SOLAR ENERGY, 1979, 22 (02) :155-164

[7] EVALUATION OF SELECTED MODELS FOR ESTIMATING SOLAR-RADIATION ON HORIZONTAL SURFACES [J].

DAVIES, JA ;

MCKAY, DC .

SOLAR ENERGY, 1989, 43 (03) :153-168

[8]

Duffie JA, 1991, SOLAR ENG THERMAL PR

[9]

Festa R., 1992, Renewable Energy, V2, P23, DOI 10.1016/0960-1481(92)90056-9

[10] CRITICAL ANALYSIS AND PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT OF CLEAR-SKY SOLAR IRRADIANCE MODELS USING THEORETICAL AND MEASURED DATA [J].

GUEYMARD, C .

SOLAR ENERGY, 1993, 51 (02) :121-138

← 1 2 →