Changing climate shifts timing of European floods

被引：678

作者：

Bloeschl, Guenter ^{[1
]}

Hall, Julia ^{[1
]}

Parajka, Juraj ^{[1
]}

Perdigao, Rui A. P. ^{[1
]}

Merz, Bruno ^{[2
]}

Arheimer, Berit ^{[3
]}

Aronica, Giuseppe T. ^{[4
]}

Bilibashi, Ardian ^{[5
]}

Bonacci, Ognjen ^{[6
]}

Borga, Marco ^{[7
]}

Canjevac, Ivan ^{[8
]}

Castellarin, Attilio ^{[9
]}

Chirico, Giovanni B. ^{[10
]}

Claps, Pierluigi ^{[11
]}

Fiala, Kaÿroly ^{[12
]}

Frolova, Natalia ^{[13
]}

Gorbachova, Liudmyla ^{[14
]}

Gul, Ali ^{[15
]}

Hannaford, Jamie ^{[16
]}

Harrigan, Shaun ^{[16
]}

Kireeva, Maria ^{[13
]}

Kiss, Andrea ^{[1
]}

Kjeldsen, Thomas R. ^{[17
]}

Kohnova, Silvia ^{[18
]}

Koskela, Jarkko J. ^{[19
]}

Ledvinka, Ondrej ^{[20
]}

Macdonald, Neil ^{[21
,22
]}

Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria ^{[23
]}

Mediero, Luis ^{[24
]}

Merz, Ralf ^{[25
]}

Molnar, Peter ^{[26
]}

Montanari, Alberto ^{[9
]}

Murphy, Conor ^{[27
]}

Osuch, Marzena ^{[28
]}

Ovcharuk, Valeryia ^{[29
]}

Radevski, Ivan ^{[30
]}

Rogger, Magdalena ^{[1
]}

Salinas, Jose L. ^{[1
]}

Sauquet, Eric ^{[31
]}

Sraj, Mojca ^{[32
]}

Szolgay, Jan ^{[18
]}

Viglione, Alberto ^{[1
]}

Volpi, Elena ^{[33
]}

Wilson, Donna ^{[34
]}

Zaimi, Klodian ^{[35
]}

Zivkovic, Nenad ^{[36
]}

机构：

[1] Vienna Univ Technol, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Managem, Vienna, Austria

[2] GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, Helmholtz Ctr Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany

[3] Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Norrkoping, Sweden

[4] Univ Messina, Dept Engn, Messina, Italy

[5] Renewable Energy Syst Technol, Control Syst Engn, Tirana, Albania

[6] Split Univ, Fac Civil Engn Architecture & Geodesy, Split, Croatia

[7] Univ Padua, Dept Land Environm Agr & Forestry, Padua, Italy

[8] Univ Zagreb, Fac Sci, Dept Geog, Zagreb, Croatia

[9] Univ Bologna, Dept Civil Chem Environm & Mat Engn DICAM, Bologna, Italy

[10] Univ Naples Federico II, Dept Agr Sci, Naples, Italy

[11] Politecn Torino, Dept Environm Land & Infrastruct Engn DIATI, Turin, Italy

[12] Lower Tisza Dist Water Directorate, Szeged, Hungary

[13] Lomonosov Moscow State Univ, Dept Land Hydrol, Moscow, Russia

[14] Ukrainian Hydrometeorol Inst, Dept Hydrol Res, Kiev, Ukraine

[15] Dokuz Eylul Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Izmir, Turkey

[16] Ctr Ecol Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England

[17] Univ Bath, Dept Architecture & Civil Engn, Bath, Avon, England

[18] Slovak Univ Technol Bratislava, Fac Civil Engn, Dept Land & Water Resources Management, Bratislava 81005, Slovakia

[19] Finnish Environm Inst, Helsinki, Finland

[20] Czech Hydrometeorol Inst, Prague, Czech Republic

[21] Univ Liverpool, Dept Geog & Planning, Liverpool, Merseyside, England

[22] Univ Liverpool, Inst Risk & Uncertainty, Liverpool, Merseyside, England

[23] Univ Architecture, Civil Engn & Geodesy Sofia, Sofia, Bulgaria

[24] Tech Univ Madrid, Dept Civil Engn Hydraul Energy & Environm, Madrid, Spain

[25] UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Catchment Hydrol, Halle, Germany

[26] ETH, Inst Environm Engn, Zurich, Switzerland

[27] Maynooth Univ, Irish Climate Anal & Res Units, Dept Geog, Maynooth, Kildare, Ireland

[28] Polish Acad Sci, Inst Geophys, Dept Hydrol & Hydrodynam, Warsaw, Poland

[29] Odessa State Environm Univ, Hydrometeorol Inst, Odessa, Ukraine

[30] Ss Cyril & Methodius Univ, Fac Nat Sci & Math, Inst Geog, Skopje, Macedonia

[31] UR HHLY, Irstea, Hydrology Hydraul Res Unit, Lyon, France

[32] Univ Ljubljana, Fac Civil & Geodet Engn, Ljubljana, Slovenia

[33] Univ Rome Tre, Dept Engn, Rome, Italy

[34] Norwegian Water Resources & Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway

[35] Polytechn Univ Tirana, Inst Geo Sci Energy Water & Environm, Tirana, Albania

[36] Univ Belgrade, Fac Geog, Belgrade, Serbia

来源：

SCIENCE | 2017年 / 357卷 / 6351期

基金：

欧洲研究理事会; 俄罗斯科学基金会;

关键词：

LARGE-SCALE; TRENDS;

D O I：

10.1126/science.aan2506

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

070301 [无机化学]; 070403 [天体物理学]; 070507 [自然资源与国土空间规划学]; 090105 [作物生产系统与生态工程];

摘要：

A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.

引用

页码：588 / 590

页数：3

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[2]

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