Madden-Julian variability in NCAR CAM2.0 and CCSM2.0

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) dominates tropical variability on time scales of 30-70 days. During the boreal winter/spring it is manifested as an eastward propagating disturbance, with a strong convective signature over the eastern hemisphere. Here, 20-100 day bandpass filtered outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for the months of November-March from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmospheric Model Version 2.0 (NCAR CAM2.0) and the Community Coupled System Model Version 2.0 (CCSM2.0) models is projected onto the observed patterns of MJO convection. This provides for the analysis of the models within a standard framework. Additionally, only analyzing years when the lead/lag relationship of the simulated principal components lie in the observed phase-space better isolates the simulated MJO signal. CCSM2.0 yields a better representation of the MJO than CAM2.0 due to the presence of air-sea interaction. Even so, the amplitude and spatial extent of the intraseasonal convection are underestimated relative to observed OLR, with a pronounced underestimate of the near-equatorial convection. Due to the development of a split inter-tropical convergence zone in the western Pacific, which is independent of the MJO, the models are precluded from representing the low-level moisture convergence that is central to the eastward propagation of the MJO. Once the systematic model error is remedied the underlying capability of the models to simulate the MJO will be possible.