Gravitational waves probe the coalescence rate of massive black hole binaries

We calculate the expected nHz-muHz gravitational wave (GW) spectrum from coalescing massive black hole (MBH) binaries resulting from mergers of their host galaxies. We consider detection of this spectrum by precision pulsar timing and a future pulsar timing array. The spectrum depends on the merger rate of massive galaxies, the demographics of MBHs at low and high redshift, and the dynamics of MBH binaries. We apply recent theoretical and observational work on all of these fronts. The spectrum has a characteristic strain h(c)(f) similar to 10(15)(f/yr(-1))(-2/3), just below the detection limit from recent analysis of precision pulsar timing measurements. However, the amplitude of the spectrum is still very uncertain owing to approximations in the theoretical formulation of the model, to our lack of knowledge of the merger rate and MBH population at high redshift, and to the dynamical problem of removing enough angular momentum from the MBH binary to reach a GW-dominated regime.