A logical model for quantification of occupational risk

Functional block diagrams (FBDs) and their equivalent event trees are introduced as logical models in the quantification of occupational risks. Although a FBD is similar to an influence diagram or a belief network it provides a framework for introduction in a compact form of the logic of the model through the partition of the paths of the equivalent event tree. This is achieved by consideration of an overall event which has as outcomes the outmost consequences defining the risk under analysis. This event is decomposed into simpler events the outcome space of which is partitioned into subsets corresponding to the outcomes of the initial joint event. The simpler events can be further decomposed into simpler events creating a hierarchy where the events in a given level (parents) are decomposed to a number of simpler events (children) in the next level of the hierarchy. The partitioning of the outcome space is transferred from level to level through logical relationships corresponding to the logic of the model. Occupational risk is modeled trough a general FBD where the undesirable health consequence is decomposed to "dose" and "dose/ response"; "dose" is decomposed to "center event" and "mitigation"; "center event" is decomposed to "initiating event" and "prevention". This generic FBD can be transformed to activity-specific FBDs which together with their equivalent event trees are used to delineate the various accident sequences that might lead to injury or death consequences. The methodology and the associated algorithms have been computerized in a program with a graphical user interface (GUI) which allows the user to input the functional relationships between parent and children events, corresponding probabilities for events of the lowest level and obtain at the end the quantified corresponding simplified event tree. The methodology is demonstrated with an application to the risk of falling from a mobile ladder. This type of accidents has been analyzed as part of the Workgroup Occupational Risk Model (WORM) project in the Netherlands aiming at the development and quantification of models for a full range of potential risks from accidents in the workspace. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd.