A Quantitative Analysis of Swedish Fertility Dynamics: 1751-1990

This paper analyzes the relationship between age-specific fertility, mortality, and real wages in Sweden during the demographic transition. We fit a model of life-cycle fertility to two and a half centuries of Swedish time-series data. The model fits the data well, accurately portraying the total fertility decline from more than four children per female before the mid-nineteenth century to about two children today. About 80% of this decline was in fertility at female ages over 30. The fitted model implies that reduction in child mortality is the most important factor explaining the fertility decline. (C) 1999 Academic Press