Active life expectancy estimates for the US elderly population: A multidimensional continuous-mixture model of functional change applied to completed cohorts, 1982-1996

被引:66
作者
Manton, KG
Land, KC
机构
[1] Duke Univ, Ctr Demog Studies, Durham, NC 27708 USA
[2] Duke Univ, Dept Sociol, Durham, NC 27708 USA
关键词
D O I
10.2307/2648040
中图分类号
C921 [人口统计学];
学科分类号
摘要
An increment-decrement stochastic-process life table model that continuously mixes measures of functional change is developed to represent age transitions among highly refined disability states interacting simultaneously with mortality The model is applied to data from the National Long Term Care Surveys of elderly persons in the years 1982 to 1996 to produce active life expectancy estimates based on completed-cohort life tables. At ages 65 and 85, comparisons with extant period estimates for 1990 show that our active life expectancy estimates are larger for both males and females than are extant period estimates based on coarse disability states.
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页码:253 / 265
页数:13
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