A demand-based perspective on technology life cycles

This article considers the relationship between consumers' valuation of performance improvements and technology development over the technology life cycle. Presenting a demand-based perspective, it explores how the character of life cycle maturity, the nature of competitive threats, and firms' innovation incentives all change when consumer demand for performance matures in advance of a technology's performance trajectories. It characterizes demand maturity by introducing the idea of a demand S curve as a complement to the traditional technology S curve. In doing so, it offers a new lens for assessing firms prospects of achieving superior performance through the commercialization of new technologies.