Uncertainty in population dynamics and its consequences for the management of the orange-bellied parrot Neophema chrysogaster

The population dynamics of a rare and dispersed species like the Orange-bellied Parrot Neophema chrysogaster include many uncertainties, especially concerning mortality. Taking these uncertainties into account we evaluated several options for management of the Orange-bellied Parrot habitat. Options were ranked by their effects on the viability of the population. There was considerable variability in the resulting rank orders. A few general features appeared to be rather stable with respect to all forms of uncertainty considered. It was found that survival of birds during the winter season was more important than their reproductive success in summer and qualitative features of the habitat, such as the composition of vegetation, were more important than quantitative features such as the habitat size. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.