Modified Delphi methodology for technology forecasting - Case study of electronics and information technology in India

A nationwide Delphi-based technology forecasting exercise was undertaken in India in electronics and information technology. First, scenario writings covering 10 subtechnological areas were done by a panel of experts based on certain guidelines provided by the Technology, Information, Forecasting & Assessment Council (TIFAC). These formed the basis of framing of more than 280 Delphi questions by a set of experts. Delphi inquiry required responses to be given in numerical as well as text form particularly to cover specific Indian scenario and needs. About 370 experts were asked to respond. The response rate was around 35%, which was considered statistically sufficient to go ahead with the analysis. A computer program analyzed the responses through the combination of interquartile range mean, median, and mode to find out the consensus among the respondents on a particular question. Text-based responses were analyzed to propose a roadmap for India. Technology forecasts, thus done on short, medium, and longterm, were then fine tuned in a one-day seminar of experts, planners, and administrators. These were then debated and short listed to arrive at a recommended plan of action for implementation. The modified Delphi methodology for technology forecasting proposed in this article is thus a combination of scenario writing, Delphi questionnaire, and response analysis using additional written inputs to develop a roadmap for India, fine tuning and short listing through a seminar for implementation. This methodology is considered unique for rapidly changing technology with all pervasive applications like electronics and information technology aiming at sustainable development. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.