INVESTMENT SPIKES AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE PETROLEUM REFINING INDUSTRY

被引：30

作者：

Dunne, Timothy ^{[1
]}

Mu, Xiaoyi ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oklahoma, Dept Econ, Norman, OK 73019 USA

[2] Univ Dundee, Ctr Energy Petr & Mineral Law & Policy, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland

来源：

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS | 2010年 / 58卷 / 01期

关键词：

CAPITAL ADJUSTMENT; EMPIRICAL-EVIDENCE; FUTURES PRICES; DURATION DATA; DEPENDENCE; EFFICIENCY; MODELS; IMPACT; LUMPS; COST;

D O I：

10.1111/j.1467-6451.2010.00407.x

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on the investment decisions of petroleum refineries in the U.S. We construct uncertainty measures from the commodity futures market and use data on actual capacity changes to measure investment episodes. Since capacity changes in U.S. refineries occur infrequently, we empirically model the investment process using hazard models. An increase in uncertainty decreases the probability that a refinery might adjust its capacity. The results are robust to various investment thresholds. Our findings lend support to theories that emphasize the role of irreversibility in investment decisions.

引用

页码：190 / 213

页数：24

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