Long-term energy output estimation for photovoltaic energy systems using synthetic solar irradiation data

A general methodology is presented to estimate the monthly average daily energy output from photovoltaic energy systems. Energy output is estimated from synthetically generated solar radiation data. The synthetic solar radiation data are generated based on the cumulative frequency distribution of the daily clearness index, given as a function of the monthly clearness index. Two sets of synthetic solar irradiation data are generated: 3- and 4-day months. In the 3-day month, each month is represented by 3 days and in the 4-day month, by 4 days. The 3- and 4-day solar irradiation data are synthetically generated for each month and the corresponding energy outputs are calculated. A total of 8-year long measured hourly solar irradiation data, from five different locations in the world, is used to validate the new model. The monthly energy output values calculated from the synthetic solar irradiation data are compared to those calculated from the measured hour-by-hour data. It is shown that when the measured solar radiation data do not exist for a particular location or reduced data set is advantageous, the energy output from photovoltaic converters could be correctly calculated. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.