Preferential flows and travel time distributions: defining adequate hypothesis tests for hydrological process models Preface

被引:80
作者
Beven, Keith J. [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England
[2] Uppsala Univ, Geoctr, Uppsala, Sweden
关键词
hydrological models; uncertainty estimation; type I errors; type II errors; type III errors; limits-of-acceptability; WATER-TABLE PREDICTIONS; TRANSIT TIMES; CONCEPTUAL-MODEL; CATCHMENT; UNCERTAINTY; PLYNLIMON; RAINFALL; TOPMODEL; CHLORIDE; WALES;
D O I
10.1002/hyp.7718
中图分类号
TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];
学科分类号
081501 ;
摘要
This introduction to the second annual review issue of Hydrological Processes tries to put the collection of papers on preferential flows and travel time distributions into a more general context of testing models as hypotheses about how catchment systems function. It is suggested that, because of the possibilities of non-stationary and epistemic errors in both data and models, such tests could be carried out within a rejectionist limits-of-acceptability framework. The principles and difficulties of hypothesis testing within these particular research areas are discussed. An important point to take from this discussion is that the use of a formal testing framework, and the consequent rejection of models as hypotheses after allowing for uncertainties in the data, is the starting point for developing better theories and data sets. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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页码:1537 / 1547
页数:11
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