Short-term forecasting of solar radiation:: A statistical approach using satellite data

Short-term forecasting of solar irradiance is an important issue for many fields of solar energy applications. As the solar surface irradiance can be inferred from satellite measurements with a high temporal and spatial resolution, we use satellite images as a data source for forecasting. The satellite data provide information on cloudiness, the most important atmospheric parameter for surface irradiance. This paper describes the application of a statistical method to detect the motion of cloud structures from satellite images. Extrapolating the temporal development of the cloud situation, solar radiation can be predicted For time scales from 30 min up to 2 h. The forecasts are evaluated with respect to accuracy and an example for the application of the forecast algorithm to predict PV power output is presented. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.