Choices, beliefs, and infectious disease dynamics

被引：84

作者：

Auld, MC ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calgary, Fac Social Sci, Dept Econ, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada

来源：

JOURNAL OF HEALTH ECONOMICS | 2003年 / 22卷 / 03期

关键词：

epidemiology; AIDS; dynamic programming;

D O I：

10.1016/S0167-6296(02)00103-0

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

A dynamic model of risky behavior in the midst of an epidemic is discussed. The key result is that pessimistic expectations over the future of the epidemic induce more current risky behavior. Numerical simulation of equilibrium epidemics shows that this effect can accelerate spread of the disease in an epidemic's early stages and that the effect of policy interventions, such as preventative vaccines, may depend on whether the intervention was anticipated. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：361 / 377

页数：17

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