Significance of cytogenetic clonal evolution in chronic myelogenous leukemia

Purpose: To describe the incidence and significance of clonal evolution patterns. Patients and Methods: We analyzed 264 patients with Philadelphia chromosome (Ph)-positive chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) who developed clonal evolution between 1967 and 1993. Results: The median survival time following clonal evolution was 19 months. Factors associated with worse survival (P < .01) were as follows: chromosome 17 abnormality or chromosomal translocations other than Ph, high percentage of abnormal metaphases, longer time to clonal evolution, and presence of other accelerated-phase features. A recursive partitioning technique (CART) identified different risk groups. The best group (37 patients; no chromosome 17 abnormality, abnormal metaphases < 16%, and interval to clonal evolution less than or equal to 24 months) had an estimated median survival time of 54 months. The worst two groups included 27 patients with chromosome 17 abnormalities and greater than or equal to 36% abnormal metaphases (estimated median survival time, 6 months), and 22 patients with other accelerated features and greater than or equal to 16% abnormal metaphases (estimated median survival time, 7 months). The intermediate group had an estimated median survival time that ranged from 13 to 24 months. Prior interferon therapy evaluated within risk groups showed a significant survival advantage only in the intermediate-risk group. A multivariate analysis showed similar results, and identified the following independent poor prognostic variables: chromosome 17 abnormality, percentage of abnormal metaphases (cutoff, 24%), longer time to clonal evolution (cutoff, 24 months), other accelerated-phase features, and no prior interferon therapy. Patients with none, one, two, three, or more of the first four features had median survivals times of 51, 24, 14, and 7 months, respectively. Conclusion: The prognostic significance of clonal evolution in CML is not uniform and is related to the specific abnormality, time to its development, its predominance in metaphases, and the presence of other accelerated features, and it may be modified by specific therapies. (C) 1996 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.