Is there a 1970s syndrome? Analyzing structural breaks in the metabolism of industrial economies

被引：28

作者：

Wiedenhofer, Dominik ^{[1
]}

Rovenskaya, Elena ^{[2
]}

Haas, Willi ^{[1
]}

Krausmann, Fridolin ^{[1
]}

Pallua, Irene ^{[1
]}

Fischer-Kowalski, Marina ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Alpen Adria Univ, Inst Social Ecol SEC, Schottenfeldgasse 29, A-1070 Vienna, Austria

[2] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

来源：

EUROPEAN GEOSCIENCES UNION GENERAL ASSEMBLY 2013, EGUDIVISION ENERGY, RESOURCES & THE ENVIRONMENT, ERE | 2013年 / 40卷

关键词：

long-term socio-ecological research; socio-metabolic transition; material flows analysis; autoregressive moving average statistical testing; chow tests; TRANSITIONS; ENERGY;

D O I：

10.1016/j.egypro.2013.08.022

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

In this paper we focus on long-term socio-ecological transitions from the agrarian to the industrial metabolic regime. Statistical analysis is used to identify structural breaks in the development of energy use in the second half of the 20th century. A stabilization of per capita energy and resource use in most high-income countries was reached in the early 1970ies, after a period of accelerated growth of resource use since the end of World War II. Most empirical turns in trend coincide with the oil price crises of 1973 and 1979. This stabilization could offer lessons for a future sustainability transition. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

引用

页码：182 / 191

页数：10

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