Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming

被引:169
作者
Polyakov, IV [1 ]
Alekseev, GV
Bekryaev, RV
Bhatt, U
Colony, RL
Johnson, MA
Karklin, VP
Makshtas, AP
Walsh, D
Yulin, AV
机构
[1] Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Int Arctic Res Ctr, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA
[2] Arctic & Antarctic Res Inst, St Petersburg 199397, Russia
[3] Univ Alaska, Inst Marine Sci, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1029/2001GL011111
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
[1] Arctic variability is dominated by multi-decadal fluctuations. Incomplete sampling of these fluctuations results in highly variable arctic surface-air temperature (SAT) trends. Modulated by multi-decadal variability, SAT trends are often amplified relative to northern-hemispheric trends, but over the 125-year record we identify periods when arctic SAT trends were smaller or of opposite sign than northern-hemispheric trends. Arctic and northern-hemispheric air-temperature trends during the 20th century (when multi-decadal variablity had little net effect on computed trends) are similar, and do not support the predicted polar amplification of global warming. The possible moderating role of sea ice cannot be conclusively identified with existing data. If long-term trends are accepted as a valid measure of climate change, then the SAT and ice data do not support the proposed polar amplification of global warming. Intrinsic arctic variability obscures long-term changes, limiting our ability to identify complex feedbacks in the arctic climate system.
引用
收藏
页数:4
相关论文
共 21 条
  • [1] CHAPMAN WL, 1993, B AM METEOROL SOC, V74, P33, DOI 10.1175/1520-0477(1993)074<0033:RVOSIA>2.0.CO
  • [2] 2
  • [3] Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere
    Delworth, TL
    Mann, ME
    [J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2000, 16 (09) : 661 - 676
  • [4] Doronin Y., 1971, Thermal interaction of the atmosphere and the hydrosphere in the Arctic
  • [5] HOUGHTON JT, 1996, SCI CLIMATE CHANGE I, P86
  • [6] Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years
    Jones, PD
    New, M
    Parker, DE
    Martin, S
    Rigor, IG
    [J]. REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS, 1999, 37 (02) : 173 - 199
  • [7] ABSENCE OF EVIDENCE FOR GREENHOUSE WARMING OVER THE ARCTIC-OCEAN IN THE PAST 40 YEARS
    KAHL, JD
    CHARLEVOIX, DJ
    ZAITSEVA, NA
    SCHNELL, RC
    SERREZE, MC
    [J]. NATURE, 1993, 361 (6410) : 335 - 337
  • [8] Recent observations of a spring-summer surface warming over the Arctic Ocean
    Martin, S
    Munoz, E
    Drucker, R
    [J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 1997, 24 (10) : 1259 - 1262
  • [9] Arctic sea ice extents, areas, and trends, 1978-1996
    Parkinson, CL
    Cavalieri, DJ
    Gloersen, P
    Zwally, HJ
    Comiso, JC
    [J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, 1999, 104 (C9) : 20837 - 20856
  • [10] Arctic decadal and interdecadal variability
    Polyakov, IV
    Johnson, MA
    [J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2000, 27 (24) : 4097 - 4100