Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

被引:126
作者
McCollum, David L. [1 ,2 ]
Wilson, Charlie [1 ,3 ]
Bevione, Michela [4 ,5 ]
Carrara, Samuel [4 ,5 ]
Edelenbosch, Oreane Y. [6 ,7 ]
Emmerling, Johannes [4 ,5 ]
Guivarch, Celine [8 ]
Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis [9 ]
Keppo, Ilkka [10 ]
Krey, Volker [1 ]
Lin, Zhenhong [11 ,12 ]
Broin, Eoin O. [13 ,14 ]
Paroussos, Leonidas [9 ]
Pettifor, Hazel [3 ]
Ramea, Kalai [15 ]
Riahi, Keywan [1 ,16 ,17 ]
Sano, Fuminori [18 ]
Rodriguez, Baltazar Solano [10 ]
van Vuuren, Detlef P. [6 ,7 ]
机构
[1] IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
[2] Univ Tennessee, Howard H Baker Jr Ctr Publ Policy, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA
[3] Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England
[4] FEEM, Climate & Sustainable Innovat CSI Program, Milan, Italy
[5] Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat CMCC, Econ Anal Climate Impacts & Policy Div ECIP, Milan, Italy
[6] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Climate Air & Energy Dept, The Hague, Netherlands
[7] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands
[8] CIRED, Ecole Ponts, Nogent Sur Marne, France
[9] Natl Tech Univ Athens, Inst Commun & Comp Syst, E3MLab, Zografos, Greece
[10] UCL, UCL Energy Inst, Cent House, London, England
[11] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Ctr Transportat Anal, Knoxville, TN USA
[12] Univ Tennessee, Dept Ind & Syst Engn, Knoxville, TN USA
[13] CIRED, Nogent Sur Marne, France
[14] SMASH, Nogent Sur Marne, France
[15] Univ Calif Davis, Inst Transportat Studies, Davis, CA 95616 USA
[16] Graz Univ Technol, Inst Thermal Engn, Graz, Austria
[17] Colorado Sch Mines, Payne Inst, Golden, CO 80401 USA
[18] Res Inst Innovat Technol Earth RITE, Syst Anal Grp, Kyoto, Japan
来源
NATURE ENERGY | 2018年 / 3卷 / 08期
关键词
SUSTAINABLE INNOVATIONS; CONJOINT-ANALYSIS; DRIVING RANGE; TRANSPORT; TRAVEL; DIFFUSION; ADOPTION; ECONOMY; MODELS; BEHAVIOR;
D O I
10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z
中图分类号
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要
Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.
引用
收藏
页码:664 / 673
页数:10
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