Uncertainty in incident rates for trucks carrying dangerous goods

被引：18

作者：

Button, NP

Reilly, PM

机构：

[1] Univ Waterloo, Dept Civil Engn, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada

[2] Univ Waterloo, Dept Chem Engn, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada

来源：

ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION | 2000年 / 32卷 / 06期

基金：

加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;

关键词：

trucks; dangerous goods; risk; uncertainty;

D O I：

10.1016/S0001-4575(00)00003-8

中图分类号：

TB18 [人体工程学];

学科分类号：

1201 ;

摘要：

This paper addresses the uncertainty associated with release and fire incident rates for trucks in transit carrying dangerous goods. The research extends the treatment of uncertainty beyond sensitivity analysis, low-best-high estimates and confidence intervals, and represents the uncertainty through probability density functions. The analysis uses Monte Carlo simulations to propagate the uncertainty in the input variables through to the resulting release and fire incident rates. The paper illustrates how we can combine information on accident and non-accident releases and fires to generate probability density functions for the total expected releases and fires per billion vehicle kilometres for trucks carrying dangerous goods. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：797 / 804

页数：8