Vertebral fracture in postmenopausal Chinese women: a population-based study

In a random sample of postmenopausal Chinese women, the prevalence of radiographic vertebral fractures increased from 13% between ages 50 and 59 to over 50% after age 80 years. A model with seven clinical risk factors predicted the probability of vertebral fractures as well with as without BMD and better than a model with only three risk factors. More than half an hour of outdoor activity per day might correlate with lower risk of vertebral fracture in this population. We aimed to describe the prevalence and develop a model for prediction of radiographic vertebral fractures in a large random sample of postmenopausal Chinese women. We enrolled 1760 women from an age-stratified random sample of postmenopausal women in Beijing, China. The presence of vertebral fracture was assessed by semi-quantitative grading of lateral thoracolumbar radiographs, risk factors by interview, bone mineral density (BMD) of the proximal femur and lumbar spine by dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and markers of bone turnover from a fasting blood sample. Associations of these factors were analyzed in logistic models and discrimination by areas of receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC). The prevalence of vertebral fracture, ranged from 13.4% ages 50 to 59 years old to 58.1% at age 80 years or older. Older age, a history of non-vertebral fracture, lower femoral neck BMD T-score, body mass index (BMI), height loss, housework, and less than half an hour of outdoor activity were significantly associated with increased probability of having a vertebral fracture. A model with those seven factors had a similar AUC with or without BMD and performed better than a simple model with three factors. This study is from a true random sample of postmenopausal women in urban China with high response rate. The prevalence of vertebral fractures in postmenopausal women in Beijing increases from 13% under age 60 to over 50% by age 80 years. A model with seven clinical risk factors with or without BMD is better than simple models and may guide the use of spine x-rays to identify women with vertebral fractures. More than half an hour of outdoor activity might correlate with lower risk of vertebral fracture in this population.