Climate, mosquito indices and the epidemiology of dengue fever in Trinidad (2002-2004)

Between January 2002 and December 2004, a population-based study on the effects of climate and mosquito indices on the incidences of dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) was conducted in Trinidad, West Indies. The incidence of DF was 5.05 cases/1000 population in 2002, largely as the result of a major outbreak, but declined to 0.49 case/1000 in 2004. The monthly Aedes aegypti (L.) Breteau indices (BI) did not decline over the 3-year study period, however, but increased from a mean of 29 in 2002 to one of 36 in 2004, with seasonal variations (BI of 30-46 and 20-34 were recorded in the wet and dry seasons, respectively). No significant correlations were observed between temperature and DF or DHF incidence but rainfall was found to be significantly correlated with DF incidence, with a clearly defined 'dengue season', between June and November, in two of the study years. The apparent decline in dengue transmission since 2002 appears to be largely attributable to the development of 'herd immunity' in the general population and not to the attempts at vector control. Since the introduction of new serotypes or the fading of the herd immunity could lead to an explosive epidemic of dengue in Trinidad, there is clearly a need for continued surveillance.