GIS-based assessment of the threat to world forests by patterns of non-sustainable civilisation nature interaction

The paper presents a novel transdisciplinary approach to investigate non-sustainable civilisation-nature interactions in the context of global change. The approach rests on the decomposition of intricate dynamics of Global Change into problematic patterns civilisation nature interactions ('syndromes') this is done by an iterative process of observations, data and theoretical system analysis and GIS-based modelling attempts. These syndromes of global change characterise endangering and risky developments of civilisation nature interaction and represent a baseline for measuring and indicating 'non-sustainability'; in order to have a sustainable development it is necessary to have a far-reaching absence of syndromes. They encompass the core problems of global change, e.g. soil degradation, climate change, threats to biodiversity or global deforestation. Patterns are defined as characteristic constellations of global change trends ('symptoms'). Cause-effect schemes of symptoms and their interrelations are constituted as complex phenomena resulting from interactions over the different spheres of the Earth system (biosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere, population, pedosphere, economy, psychosocial sphere, social organisation, science and technology). The approach is illustrated by an analysis of civilisation-nature interaction patterns relevant for global deforestation. Global forest ecosystems have been chosen for this investigation because of their important role in the global carbon cycle and their importance for biological diversity. The resulting geographical patchwork of the combined dispositions and intensities of the different syndromes describes current and future regional threats to forests by their underlying global cause-effect patterns of civilisation-nature interaction. (C) 2000 Academic Press.