Structural change, labor market turbulence, and labor market outcomes

Job mobility, occupational mobility, and industrial mobility are products of a changing structure of vacancies as well as of individual differences in resources and preferences. We develop a model of mobility that includes the macro forces of turbulence and change and includes individual-level attributes as well. Using data from the Current Population Surveys, the 1980 and 1990 census PUMS, and from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics for the 1980s, we show that male workers in particular were affected during the 1980s by the ''push'' and ''pull'' forces that are inherent in a restructuring economy. Occupational and industrial expansion stimulated increased rates of job mobility within industries, while occupational and industrial contraction pushed workers out of their origin occupations and industries. The biggest effect of industrial or occupational contraction was to stimulate exits from employment, and ''cross-over'' effects were asymmetrical (i.e., industrial net change affected occupational mobility more than the reverse). Furthermore, individuals with few labor market resources generally showed greater sensitivity to structural turbulence. The pattern of gender differences suggest that women were less affected by the ''push'' forces of restructuring than were men during the 1980s.