An elicitation method for multivariate normal distributions

被引：18

作者：

Al-Awadhi, SA ^{[1
]}

Garthwaite, PH ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Aberdeen, Dept Math Sci, Aberdeen AB24 3UE, Scotland

来源：

COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-THEORY AND METHODS | 1998年 / 27卷 / 05期

关键词：

conjugate distribution; inverse Wishart; prior distribution; probability assessment; subjective probability;

D O I：

10.1080/03610929808832149

中图分类号：

O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];

学科分类号：

020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;

摘要：

This paper presents an elicitation method for quantifying an expert's subjective opinion about a multivariate normal distribution. It is assumed that the expert's opinion can be adequately represented by a natural conjugate distribution (a normal inverse-Wishart distribution), and the expert performs various assessment tasks that enable the hyperparameters of the distribution to be estimated. There is some choice in the way hyperparameters are determined from the elicited assessments and empirical work underlies the choices made. The method is implemented in an interactive computer program that questions the expert and forms the subjective distribution. An example illustrating use of the method is given.

引用

页码：1123 / 1142

页数：20

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