Remote effects of tropical storm Cristobal upon a cut-off cyclone over Europe in August 2002

In August 2002, many parts of central Europe were affected by heavy precipitation and flooding caused by a cut-off cyclone. This study shows that this cyclone developed as a result of the propagation of a Rossby wave packet. The wave-packet propagation along the relatively weak subtropical jet was accompanied by wave-breaking and re-emission in the subtropics. In particular, there was an interaction between the Rossby wave packet and a precipitation band along the east coast of North America associated with tropical storm Cristobal. This interaction had a significant influence upon the formation of the European cut-off low. Results from numerical simulations from two different initial conditions are investigated to study this interaction. Downstream influences from tropical storm Cristobal upon the development of this cyclone and associated flooding precipitation are confirmed by sensitivity analysis using ensemble forecasts. It is concluded from analysis and simulations that poor forecast skills of tropical storm Cristobal affected the predictability of the European cut-off low.