The ratio of type II collagen breakdown to synthesis and its relationship with the progression of knee osteoarthritis

Objective: To examine whethor the baseline ratio of a type II collagen breakdown marker to a synthesis marker, or the level of these markers individually, is associated with the likelihood of knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression between baseline and 18 months. Methods: Participants were recruited from community sources and had knee OA. Blood was drawn at baseline. Collagen synthesis was measured by commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) assay that detects c-propeptide of type II procollagen (CPII). Serum markers of collagenase cleavage of cartilage type II collagen [C2C epitope (COL2-3/4Clong mono) and C1,2C epitope (COL2-3/4Cshort)] were also assayed. Knee. radiographs (semi-flexed with fluoro confirmation) were obtained at baseline and 18 months. OA progression was examined using worsening of joint space grade and worsening of Kellgren/Lawrence grade. The relationship between baseline serum markers and subsequent progression was analyzed from logistic regression. Results: Baseline levels of these markers, considered individually, were not associated with a change in the odds of progression. Belonging to the low synthesis tertile was associated with a greater likelihood of progression, approaching significance (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.96, :3.63). A greater C2C:CPII ratio and C1,2C:CPII ratio were each associated with an increase in the odds of joint space grade progression, which approached significance (e.g., adjusted OR of C2C:CPII ratio was 3.15, 95% CI 0.91, 10.85). Conclusion: While the degradation markers individually, considered as continuous variables, did not predict OA progression, belonging to the lower synthesis marker tertile and greater degradation/synthesis marker ratios were associated with an elevation in the odds of progression albeit not achieving significance. (c) 2007 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.