Understanding the inter-relationship between improved glycaemic control, hypoglycaemia and weight change within a long-term economic model

Methods: This study uses a simulation model designed to evaluate the cost utility of new therapies in a population of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Standard model outputs include incidence of micro- and macrovascular complications and diabetes-specific and all-cause mortality. Results: The mean discounted quality-adjusted life year (QALY) predicted by the model was 12.31 years. Reducing Glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) by 1% gave a predicted gain of 0.413 QALYs per patient. A 3-kg weight loss and 30% reduction in hypoglycaemia frequency produced a combined QALY gain of 0.355, whereas the reverse gave a QALY decrement of 0.356. Conclusions: The results of this analysis quantify the QALY decrement that may result from adverse therapy effects. The beneficial effects of improved glycaemic control on QALYs may be offset by characteristic treatment-specific adverse effects, such as weight gain and hypoglycaemia frequency.