Toward an early warning system for dengue prevention: modeling climate impact on dengue transmission

被引：44

作者：

Degallier, Nicolas ^{[1
]}

Favier, Charly ^{[2
]}

Menkes, Christophe ^{[1
]}

Lengaigne, Matthieu ^{[1
]}

Ramalho, Walter M. ^{[3
]}

Souza, Regilo ^{[3
]}

Servain, Jacques ^{[1
,4
]}

Boulanger, Jean-Philippe ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] UPMC, IRD, UMR 182, LOCEAN IPSL, F-75252 Paris 05, France

[2] Univ Montpellier 2, CNRS, UMR 5554, Inst Sci Evolut, F-34095 Montpellier 05, France

[3] SVS MS, Esplanada Minist, BR-70058900 Brasilia, DF, Brazil

[4] Fundacao Cearense Meteorol & Recursos Hidricos FU, BR-1246 Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

来源：

CLIMATIC CHANGE | 2010年 / 98卷 / 3-4期

关键词：

AEDES-AEGYPTI; EL-NINO; FEVER; MALARIA; DISEASE; VECTOR; VULNERABILITY; POPULATION; DYNAMICS; HEALTH;

D O I：

10.1007/s10584-009-9747-3

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease of humans in tropical lands. As an efficient vaccine is not yet available, the only means to prevent epidemics is to control mosquito populations. These are influenced by human behavior and climatic conditions and thus, need constant effort and are very expansive. Examples of succeeded prevention are rare because of the continuous reintroduction of virus or vector from outside, or growing resistance of mosquito populations to insecticides. Climate variability and global warming are other factors which may favour epidemics of dengue. During a pilot study in Claris EC project, a model for the transmission of dengue was built, to serve as a tool for estimating the risk of epidemic transmission and eventually forecasting the risk under climatic change scenarios. An ultimate objective would be to use the model as an early warning system with meteorological forecasts as input, thus allowing better decision making and prevention.

引用

页码：581 / 592

页数：12

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