How does the partitioning of evapotranspiration and runoff between different processes affect the variability and predictability of soil moisture and precipitation?

Water stored as part of the land surface is lost to evapotranspiration and runoff on different time scales, and the partitioning between these time scales is important for modeling soil water in a climate model. Different time scales are imposed on evapotranspiration primarily because it is derived from different reservoirs with different storage capacities, from the very rapid evaporation of canopy stores to the slow removal by transpiration of rooting zone soil moisture. Runoff likewise ranges in time scale from rapid surface terms to the slower base-flow. The longest time scale losses of water determine the slow variation of soil moisture and hence the longer time scale effects of soil moisture on precipitation. This paper shows with a simple analysis how shifting the partitioning of evapotranspiration between the different reservoirs affects the variability of soil moisture and precipitation. In particular, it is concluded that a shift to shorter time scale reservoirs shifts the variance of precipitation from that which is potentially predictable to unpredictable.