Expected contribution to serum oestradiol from individual ovarian follicles in unstimulated cycles

Data relating serum oestradiol concentration to follicle size in unstimulated cycles are lacking. We provide precise data on serum concentrations expected for any follicle diameter (FD) in the mid- to late follicular phase. Infertile women (n = 35) with apparently normal ovulatory cycles were studied in detail in 128 unstimulated monofollicular cycles leading to IVF, Using mathematical modelling to account for repeated cycles in the same woman, the relationship between serum oestradiol and FD was explored and reference ranges for serum oestradiol at individual FD were calculated. Serum oestradiol concentrations [number of patients, geometric mean, 95% confidence interval (CI)] at the onset of the LH surge were higher in 'fertilized' cycles (73, 1279, 1180-1378 pmol/l) compared with 'unfertilized' cycles (31, 1055, 929-1197 pmol/l, P = 0.008) and 'no oocyte' cycles (24, 1064, 922-1227 pmol/l, P = 0.03) respectively. In 'fertilized' cycles, oestradiol concentrations rose exponentially with FD and for each size of follicle the oestradiol distribution was skewed. Functional oocyte competence varied in apparently normal ovulatory cycles and was correlated with pre-ovulatory serum oestradiol but not FD, Serum oestradiol varies within wide limits for maturing follicles of any given diameter prior to the onset of the LH surge.