Economy-wide effects of climate variability and climate prediction in Mozambique

Much more research must be undertaken before any definitive statement on the value of forecast information and implications for development strategy for Mozambique or Africa in general can be made. Arndt, Hazell, and Robinson propose an approach to valuing forecasts that operates and interacts at three levels: the farm, the marketing system, and the full economy. This paper represents a first step in economy-wide analysis. Improved economy-wide analysis for Mozambique should incorporate regional detail since the local climate impacts of ENSO events vary by region. Seasonal dynamics and/or explicit incorporation of risk would also be desirable. Ideally, future CGE analysis will incorporate these model extensions and will be informed by studies on likely reactions to forecast information at both the farm and marketing systems levels.