Temperature-dependent transmission of rotavirus in Great Britain and The Netherlands

被引:55
作者
Atchison, C. J. [1 ]
Tam, C. C. [1 ]
Hajat, S. [2 ]
van Pelt, W. [3 ]
Cowden, J. M. [4 ]
Lopman, B. A. [1 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Sci, London WC1E 7HT, England
[2] Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth & Policy, London WC1E 7HT, England
[3] Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, Ctr Infect Dis Control, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands
[4] Hlth Protect Scotland, Gastrointestinal Dis & Zoonoses Dept, Glasgow G3 7LN, Lanark, Scotland
[5] Hlth Protect Agcy, Ctr Infect, London NW9 5HT, England
关键词
rotavirus; weather; temperature; relative humidity; rainfall; transmission; INFECTIOUS INTESTINAL DISEASE; RELATIVE-HUMIDITY; BOVINE ROTAVIRUS; CLIMATIC FACTORS; GENERAL-PRACTICE; RISK-FACTORS; CHILDREN; SURVIVAL; ENGLAND; SEASONALITY;
D O I
10.1098/rspb.2009.1755
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
In Europe, rotavirus gastroenteritis peaks in late winter or early spring suggesting a role for weather factors in transmission of the virus. In this study, multivariate regression models adapted for time-series data were used to investigate effects of temperature, humidity and rainfall on reported rotavirus infections and the infection-rate parameter, a derived measure of infection transmission that takes into account population immunity, in England, Wales, Scotland and The Netherlands. Delayed effects of weather were investigated by introducing lagged weather terms into the model. Meta-regression was used to pool together country-specific estimates. There was a 13 per cent (95% confidence interval (CI), 11-15%) decrease in reported infections per 1 degrees C increase in temperature above a threshold of 5 degrees C and a 4 per cent (95% CI, 3-5%) decrease in the infection-rate parameter per 1 degrees C increase in temperature across the whole temperature range. The effect of temperature was immediate for the infection-rate parameter but delayed by up to four weeks for reported infections. There was no overall effect of humidity or rainfall. There is a direct and simple relationship between cold weather and rotavirus transmission in Great Britain and The Netherlands. The more complex and delayed temperature effect on disease incidence is likely to be mediated through the effects of weather on transmission.
引用
收藏
页码:933 / 942
页数:10
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