A model for projecting flight delays during irregular operation conditions

On-time performance of airlines schedule is key factor in maintaining current customer satisfaction and attracting new ones. This requires management of the different operation resources (crew/aircraft) to ensure their on-time readiness for each flight in the planned schedule. However, flight schedules are often subjected to irregularity. In particular, weather accounts for nearly 75% of system delays. Due to the tight connection among airlines resources, these delays could dramatically propagate over time and space unless the proper recovery actions are taken. This paper presents a model which projects flight delays and alerts for possible future breaks during irregular operation conditions. The results of applying the model at the operation control center of a major airlines company in the US are presented. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.