Prognostic Factors for Transplant-Free Survival and Validation of Prognostic Models in Chinese Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis Receiving Ursodeoxycholic Acid

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to validate the prognostic models for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) in Chinese patients receiving ursodeoxycholic acid (UCDA), and to compare their performances in predicting the long-term survival. METHODS: Chinese patients with PBC from a tertiary center were identified via electronic search of hospital medical registry. Risk factors associated with adverse events (liver transplantation or death from liver-related causes including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and liver decompensation) were determined. Transplant-free survival was defined as survival free of liver-related death or transplantation. RESULTS: Of the 144 patients, 41 (28.5%) had baseline cirrhosis. The median age at diagnosis was 57.8 years. During a median follow-up of 7.0 years, 40 patients died (21 liver-related; 19 non-liver-related), 12 developed HCC, and 10 underwent transplantations. The 5-, 10-, and 15-year transplant-free survival probabilities were 91.0%, 78.1%, and 58.9%, respectively. Independent risk factors for adverse events were increasing age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.05), cirrhosis (HR 8.53), and suboptimal treatment response (HR 3.06). Aspartate aminotransferase/platelet ratio index at 1 year (APRI-r1) in combination with treatment response optimized the risk stratification. The performances of the GLOBE, UK-PBC scores, Rotterdam criteria, and APRI-r1 were comparable in predicting adverse events. The area under receiver operating curves within 5, 10, and 15 years were as follows-GLOBE score: 0.83, 0.85, and 0.85, respectively; UK-PBC score: 0.89, 0.83, and 0.79, respectively; Rotterdam criteria: 0.82, 0.76, and 0.80, respectively; APRI-r1: 0.80, 0.83, and 0.77, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The UK-PBC, GLOBE scores, Rotterdam criteria, and APRI-r1 had good and comparable prognostic prediction values for Chinese PBC patients receiving UCDA.