What is the role and contribution of models to management and research in the health services? A view from Europe

Modelling in different forms has long been regarded as a cornerstone of health OR as in other fields of application. Models are now tending to become a standard tool in health services management and research. What are the lessons we as operational researchers have learnt during this development? How can health care managers and health service researchers benefit from modelling - with or without OR-analysts to guide them between the pitfalls? After an introductory overview concerning the nature and objectives of modelling, examples will be given of modelling applications from different health service areas in order to illustrate the versatility of the method. Further, the choice of methods and models is discussed with special attention to the problems of interpretation and implementation of results. From this overview some conclusions are drawn with regards to advantages and disadvantages of modelling as tools for policy planning and decision-making in the health area. Finally some observations are made concerning the conditions for the future development in the field. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.