Simulated increase of hurricane intensities in a CO2-warmed climate

被引:200
作者
Knutson, TR [1 ]
Tuleya, RE [1 ]
Kurihara, Y [1 ]
机构
[1] NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08542 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1126/science.279.5353.1018
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Hurricanes can inflict catastrophic property damage and loss of human life. Thus, it is important to determine how the character of these powerful storms could change in response to greenhouse gas-induced global warming. The impact of climate warming on hurricane intensities was investigated with a regional, high-resolution, hurricane prediction model. In a case study, 51 western Pacific storm cases under present-day climate conditions were compared with 51 storm cases under high-CO2 conditions, More idealized experiments were also performed. The large-scale initial conditions were derived from a global climate model. For a sea surface temperature warming of about 2.2 degrees C, the simulations yielded hurricanes that were more intense by 3 to 7 meters per second (5 to 12 percent) for wind speed and 7 to 20 millibars for central surface pressure.
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页码:1018 / 1020
页数:3
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