Impacts of a GHG-induced climate change on crop yields: Effects of acceleration in maturation, moisture stress and optimal temperature

The present study involves using the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) climate change scenario to evaluate the impacts of a CO2-induced climate change on agriculture in Quebec and vicinity. Climate change using the CCC General Circulation Model (GCM) data are fed into a crop model (FAO) so as to gauge the changes in agroclimatic factors such as growing season length and growing degree days, and subsequently potential yield changes for a variety of cereal (C-3 and C-4), leguminous, oleaginous, vegetable and special crops, for twelve major agricultural regions in southern Quebec. Our results show that depending upon the agricultural zone and crop type, yields may increase (ex. corn and sorghum by 20%) or decrease (ex. wheat and soybean by 20 to 30%). Also, these crop yield changes appear to be related to acceleration in maturation rates, mainly to change in moisture stress and to shifts in optimal thermal growth conditions. These possible shifts in agricultural production potentials would solicit the formulation of appropriate adaptation strategies.