Interpretation of and extraction of useful information from irregular fluctuating industrial microbial counts

被引：17

作者：

Peleg, M ^{[1
]}

Nussinovitch, A

Horowitz, J

机构：

[1] Univ Massachusetts, Dept Food Sci, Amherst, MA 01003 USA

[2] Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Fac Agr Food & Environm Qual Sci, IL-76100 Rehovot, Israel

[3] Univ Massachusetts, Dept Math & Stat, Amherst, MA 01003 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF FOOD SCIENCE | 2000年 / 65卷 / 05期

关键词：

microbial counts; risk assessment; food safety; population models; quality assurance;

D O I：

10.1111/j.1365-2621.2000.tb13580.x

中图分类号：

TS2 [食品工业];

学科分类号：

0832 ;

摘要：

Irregular fluctuating patterns of industrial microbial records arise because certain factors that affect them vary in a random fashion. If the counts are independent, and their series stationary with no trend or periodicity, a probabilistic model based on an asymmetric distribution function can be used to estimate the frequency of counts exceeding any given magnitude. Industrial records of standard plate counts (SPC), anaerobes, and thermophiles in 4 dairy products were characterized with the lognormal distribution. Many of the records had weak but significant autocorrelations for small lags, indicating that successive lots had similar microbial loads. Nevertheless, in almost all cases the method provided reasonable estimates of future counts frequencies, which were confirmed with fresh data.

引用

页码：740 / 747

页数：8

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