Asteroid close encounters with Earth: risk assessment

被引：38

作者：

Milani, A

Chesley, SR

Valsecchi, GB

机构：

[1] Univ Pisa, Dipartimento Matemat, I-56127 Pisa, Italy

[2] CNR, Area Ric, IAS Planetol, Rome, Italy

来源：

PLANETARY AND SPACE SCIENCE | 2000年 / 48卷 / 10期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/S0032-0633(00)00061-1

中图分类号：

P1 [天文学];

学科分类号：

0704 ;

摘要：

When an asteroid with an orbit close to the Earth is observed only over a short are, there is no way to accurately predict the future close approaches. The first approach could change the orbital period in such a way that the asteroid is injected into a resonance, allowing an even closer approach a few years later. By using both a qualitative theory for these resonant returns, and a systematic numerical investigation of alternate orbital solutions, it is possible to identify future encounters and to assess their impact risk. This allows one to monitor the impact risk by all known near-Earth asteroids. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：945 / 954

页数：10

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