Shortage management modeling for urban water supply systems

Water shortages throughout the world have shaped the development of demand management and supply enhancement options to improve water supply reliability. A shortage management model based on two-stage linear programming is presented as a tool to integrate available water resources options while accounting for costs and hydrologic uncertainties. To illustrate the approach, the model is applied to a simplification of the East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD) system, The model is expanded in several case studies to demonstrate its strengths in incorporating the effects of seasonal shortages and uncertainties relating to long-term and short-term management options. Conclusions regarding the effects of uncertainties on shortage management are presented. A special examination is made of conditions encouraging economical development of dual distribution system.