Uncertainties of modelling emissions from road transport

To determine emission data from road transport, complex methods and models are applied. Emission data are characterized by a huge variety of source types as well as a high resolution of the spatial allocation and temporal variation. So far, the uncertainties of such calculated emission data have been largely unknown. As emission data is used to aid policy decisions, the accuracy of the data should be known. So, in the following, the determination of uncertainties of emission data is described. Using the IER emission model for generating regional or national emission data, the uncertainties of model input data and the total errors on different aggregation levels are exemplarily investigated for the pollutants NOx and NMHC in 1994 for the area of West Germany. The results of statistical error analysis carried out for annual emissions on road sections show variation coefficients (68.3% confidence interval) of 15-25%. In addition, systematic errors of common input data sets have been identified especially affecting emissions on motorway sections. The statistical errors of urban emissions with warm engine on town level amount to 35%. Therefore they are considerably higher than the errors outside towns. Error ranges of additional cold start emissions determined so far have been found in the same order. Additional uncertainties of temporally highly resolved (hourly) emission data depend strongly on the daytime, the weekday and the road category. Variation coefficients have been determined in the range between 10 and 70% for light-duty vehicles and between 15 and 100% for heavy-duty vehicles. All total errors determined here have to be regarded as lower limits of the real total errors. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.