Do markets favor agents able to make accurate predictions?

被引:175
作者
Sandroni, A [1 ]
机构
[1] Northwestern Univ, JL Kellogg Grad Sch Management, MEDS Dept, Evanston, IL 60208 USA
关键词
rational expectations; learning; wealth accumulation;
D O I
10.1111/1468-0262.00163
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Blume and Easley (1992) show that if agents' have the same savings rule, those who maximize the expected logarithm of next period's outcomes will eventually hold all wealth (i.e, are "most prosperous"). However, if no agent adopts this rule then the most prosperous are not necessarily those who make the most accurate predictions. Thus, agents who make inaccurate predictions need not be driven out of the market. In this paper, it is shown that, among agents who have the same intertemporal discount factor land who choose savings endogenously), the most prosperous are those who make accurate predictions. Hence, convergence to rational expectations obtains because agents who make inaccurate predictions are driven out of the market.
引用
收藏
页码:1303 / 1341
页数:39
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