Conditional simulation as a tool for measuring uncertainties in petroleum exploration

被引：2

作者：

Pan G. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] GeoSight, Inc., 9125 S. Cromwell Lane, Highlands Ranch

来源：

Nonrenewable Resources | 1997年 / 6卷 / 4期

关键词：

Conditional simulation; Drilling uncertainty; Petroleum exploration;

D O I：

10.1007/BF02765927

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

A fundamental task for petroleum exploration decision-making is to evaluate the uncertainty of well outcomes. The recent development of geostatistical simulation techniques provides an effective means to the generation of a full uncertainty model for any random variable. Sequential indicator simulation has been used as a tool to generate alternate, equal-probable stochastic models, from which various representations of uncertainties can be created. These results can be used as input for the quantification of various risks associated with a wildcat drilling program or the estimation of petroleum resources. A simple case study is given to demonstrate the use of sequential indicator simulation. The data involves a set of wildcat wells in a gas play. The multiple simulated stochastic models are then post-processed to characterize various uncertainties associated with drilling outcomes. © 1997 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

引用

页码：285 / 293

页数：8

共 13 条

[1]

Agterberg, E.P., Estimating the probability of occurrence of mineral deposits from multiple map patterns (1992) Use of Microcomputers in Geology, pp. 73-92. , in Merriam, D. E, and Kurzl, H., eds., New York, Plenum Press

[2]

Deutseh, C.V., Journel, A.G., (1992) GSLIB-Geostatistical Software Library and User's Guide, p. 340. , Oxford University Press, New York

[3]

Harbaugh, J.W., Wendebourg, J., Risk analysis of petroleum prospects (1993) Computers in Geology-25 Years of Progress, pp. 85-98. , in Davis, J., and Herzfeld, U., eds

[4]

Harris, D.P., (1984) Mineral Resources Appraisal-mineral Endowment, Resources, and Potential Supply, p. 455. , New York, Oxford University Press

[5]

Isaaks, E.H., Srivastava, R.M., (1989) An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics, p. 561. , New York, Oxford University Press

[6]

Joumel, A.G., (1983) Mining Geostatistics, p. 600. , London, Academic Press

[7]

Kaufman, G.M., Lee, P.J., Are wildcat well outcomes dependent or independent? (1992) Nonrenewable Resources, 1, pp. 201-213

[8]

Nederlof, M.H., Comparing probabilistic predictions with outcomes in petroleum exploration prospect appraisal (1994) Nonrenewable Resources, 3, pp. 183-189

[9]

Pan, G.C., (1989) Concepts and Methods of Multivariate Information Synthesis for Mineral Resources Estimation: PhD Dissertation, p. 302. , Department of Mining and Geological Engineering, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85719

[10]

Pan, G.C., Harris, D.P., Geology-exploration endowment models for simultaneous estimation of discoverable mineral resources and endowment (1991) Mathematical Geology, 23, pp. 507-540

← 1 2 →